Dynamics of prices for building materials. Is it worth building a house? Bulk building materials market analysis

16.07.2023

Photo: © Stockcentral / Bigstockphoto

The monthly volume of construction work in Russia is still declining. However, the scale of the decline compared to the same period of the previous year is getting smaller every month. Perhaps in the coming months the situation will stabilize. However, it is too early to talk about the end of the crisis.

According to IndexBox, the building and finishing materials market in January-May 2016 developed under the influence of the following trends:

Reduction in residential construction (-16.1% y/y);
Slight growth in non-residential construction (+3% YoY);
Decline in the production of building raw materials and the production of basic building materials (-4.3% and -8%, respectively);
Growth in production of finishing materials (+5.3%);
Decrease in investment in construction by 1.6% from the level of 2015.

What's going on with the construction

Housing construction

The real estate market is very inertial. A year or more may elapse between crisis events and their consequences. According to developers, the last peak of sales in the primary housing market was in December 2014, when, with the onset of a currency shock, citizens who had free funds invested them in the purchase of apartments. Already in the first months of 2015, sales fell by 30-35% and now they remain at about the same level.

Most of the housing in Russia is sold at the stage of construction of the upper floors, but before the official commissioning of the object according to the documents. The record commissioning of housing in 2015 (85.3 million sq. m., + 1.4% y/y) is due to the fact that throughout the year, but mainly in the first months, the market mastered the funds that came earlier. Since June 2015, the decline has begun. Construction showed the worst values in February this year (-23% y/y), then in March and April the decline slowed down somewhat, amounting to -14% and -6%, respectively. Just 1 sq. 2016 built 15.6 million square meters. m of housing (-16.1% y/y).

The decline in sales occurred mainly due to individuals who bought apartments with personal savings, without attracting any additional funds. During the current crisis, their share dropped from 65% to 55%. Against this background, the state is making every possible effort to stimulate the housing market, including in order to keep banks and the construction complex afloat. I found useful information about the newest slot machines on the Internet.

Thus, when buying an apartment under the subprogram "Providing housing for young families" of the federal target program "Housing" for 2015-2020, a subsidy of at least 30% of the estimated cost of housing is provided. In February, it was extended until the end of this year. At the same time, there is a program for subsidizing the rate on mortgage loans, under which the preferential rate should not exceed 12%. During the period from March to December 2015, 211 thousand loans were issued under the Program for the amount of 374 billion rubles. (35% and 37%, respectively, of the total number and volume of all ruble mortgage loans). Taking into account the supply chain, these measures indirectly keep the demand for construction and finishing materials from a deep drop.

In the consumer retail segment associated with finishing and building materials, the situation is now a little better. The number of issued consumer loans, which include loans for minor repairs, in January - May 2016 decreased by 31% y/y, real incomes of the population fell by 4.7% y/y. Against the backdrop of inflation, the average purchase size is decreasing, and interest in cheap materials, including domestic ones, is growing.

Non-residential construction

According to the results of 1 quarter. 2016, the volume of commissioning of non-residential buildings increased by 3% y/y and amounted to 4.8 million sq. m. m. Compared to 1 sq. m. 2015, the share of agricultural and industrial buildings increased (up to 26.5% and 14.3%, respectively), the share of commercial buildings decreased to 32.7%.

In our opinion, these are the first signs of profound shifts. If in the 2000s and after the crisis of 2009 the market felt some shortage of retail and office space, now the demand has already been largely satisfied and, apparently, there will be no growth in this segment for a long time. The decline in the construction of social facilities is associated with cuts in budget expenditures. On the contrary, counter-sanctions created conditions for the development of agriculture. As will be shown below, in the medium term, a slight recovery may begin in the industrial construction sector and sales of materials for the b2b segment.

Investments

In Russia, almost 2/3 of investments in fixed capital are associated with the construction industry, and in times of crisis, the share of construction in investments grows. In 2015, 5945.5 billion rubles were invested directly in construction, which is 40.8% of all investments in fixed assets over the same period.

Investment and construction volumes have been declining since mid-2012, with investment activity currently concentrated primarily in the residential construction sector. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, the dynamics of investments in fixed assets will return to the positive area in 2017, and the average increase in investments in 2017-2019 will be will be 2.7% per year. However, at the same time there will be a significant reduction in public sector spending, primarily federal authorities. Already in 2016, the volume of FTIP expenditures decreased by 23% to 860 billion rubles, and ¼ of their amount was defense spending, relatively little connected with the rest of the economy.

Another important feature of the "new normal" is the refusal of organizations to attract large loans. As experts expect, the share of investments by non-financial organizations at their own expense in 2017-2019 will will exceed 50%. The sensitivity of investment projects to profitability and payback periods of real production is growing. As a result, the market for non-residential construction and engineering is waiting for the demand for a few and inexpensive objects intended for long-term use.

Situation in the building materials market

According to economists' forecasts, the structure of investments in the Russian economy will change minimally in the coming years - a little more than 21% of the annual volume of invested funds will go to the construction of real estate, but their volume in 2016-2017 will be significantly reduced. As a result, even in 2019, after the expected resumption of economic growth, there will be 10% less money in the construction industry, after deducting inflation, than in the “fat” 2014 (see figure).

Building materials are classified as investment goods, that is, the demand for them is associated with the construction and repair of facilities. The table below summarizes the data on the dynamics of the production of the most important goods used in construction, which we have divided into the following groups:

Construction raw materials;
Basic building materials;
Decoration Materials.

During the period from January to May 2016, the production of building raw materials (-4.3% yoy) and basic building materials (-8%) decreased. The production of cheap silicate brick (-40.5% yoy), reinforced concrete products (-20%), cement (-13.7%) and ceramic bricks (-13.5%), that is, materials used in the construction of walls, bridge supports and load-bearing structures. At the same time, the production of paving slabs (+5.4%)%, used in landscaping, and tiles (+19.6), often purchased for repair rather than construction, is growing. So far, the production of sheet glass (+5%) and parquet (+1.9%) is growing, but in the first case, the profitability of the products is not fully understood.

In January - May 2016, an increase in the production of finishing materials (+ 5.7%), actively used in repair work, was recorded. There was a significant growth in the production of paints and varnishes (+23.3% yoy) and wallpaper (+19.5%). In our opinion, as in the case of parquet, it is caused by a reorientation of demand from more expensive imported products to Russian ones.

It should be noted that the capacity utilization at the building materials industry in 2015 was only 50-60% due to lack of demand, previously it was at the level of 70% and above.

In the market of building and finishing materials, we predict the following developments:

1. End consumers (retail sales of building materials) remain an attractive segment for manufacturers of building materials - repairs of apartments and suburban real estate are carried out by the population almost constantly, including on their own, and do not require the mobilization of such large funds as buying a home;
2. The devaluation of the ruble will have a negative impact on the development of the industry: due to the lack of a machine-building base for the building materials industry, there will be a significant increase in the cost of purchased imported equipment and technologies;
3. The worst year for the residential real estate market will be 2017, since by this time the current shortage of new projects on the market will begin to affect;
4. However, it is at this time that demand for building materials will gradually begin to recover, and a little earlier - in the capacious markets of brick, sand and cement;
5. Demand for all groups of building and finishing materials from the public sector will be reduced by at least 20%.

At the same time, at the moment it is still not completely clear what will be the mechanisms for the country's exit from the current situation of stopping growth.

During 2015, the cost of raw materials - cement, crushed stone, metal - significantly decreased, which led to a decrease in prices for the main building materials - concrete and reinforcement. At the end of the year, the total cost of materials for the construction of 1 cubic meter of monolith decreased by 5-10%. Such data are provided by the analytical center of the construction company RD Construction.

At the beginning of 2016, the average cost of materials for monolithic work varies from 8,000 to 15,000 rubles per 1 cubic meter. The final cost depends on a number of factors: the volume of construction, the quality and quantity of materials, the contractor company and the timing of the work. What accounts for such a price disparity? To answer this question, the analytical center considered the most common materials and analyzed their price component.

The analysis of these data shows that the cost of work is most strongly influenced by two indicators: the reinforcement coefficient and the types of monolithic works. For example, the cost of a foundation monolith can be 40-50% lower than the cost of a column monolith. This is due to the amount of reinforcement, formwork, auxiliary and consumable materials used, as well as the complexity of the work performed: complex work is paid more. At the same time, despite the decrease in prices, in the first half of 2016, a slight increase in the cost of materials due to increased demand is expected.

In Moscow and the Moscow Region, the total spread of minimum and maximum prices for building materials can be up to 25%. This is a significant amount for the overall construction budget.

How can the customer save on monolithic works? Opportunity for optimization opens up primarily through the selection of a high-quality general contractor, who, on the one hand, has direct contracts with material manufacturers and, on the other hand, provides the best ratio of price, quality and timing of monolithic works.

The customer should be wary of companies that indicate in the estimates a deliberately underestimated cost. Dumping at the tender stage in order to "enter" the project, such a general contractor will close the discrepancies in cost with the help of numerous additional agreements.

Thus, in the current economic situation, the way out for developers lies in the responsible selection of a partner - a construction company. The task of the general contractor is not only to carry out the work, but also to manage the construction. Such a partner can optimize by simplifying (but not worsening) design solutions and reducing project time.

“In the situation of working with a high-quality and financially stable general contractor, the investor, being confident in the quality and final cost, reserves only control functions and can concentrate on the successful implementation of the entire development project,” sums up Oleg Zhukov, CEO of RD Construction.

Introduction

Chapter 1. Essence, formation and role of wholesale prices of building materials in marketing 9

1.1. Marketing of wholesale prices of building materials 9

1.2. Goals and objectives of the study of wholesale prices for building materials. 14

1.3. Information base for the analysis of wholesale prices for building materials 26

1.4. Structure of wholesale prices of manufacturers and dealers for building materials 32

Chapter 2 Analysis of prices in the Russian domestic market of building materials . 47

2.1. Marketing analysis of the situation in the Russian domestic market of building materials. 47

2.2. Analysis of the impact of prices on the conjuncture of commodity markets in the construction industry 56

2.2.1. Situation on the cement market 56

2.2.2. Situation in the market of building bricks. 66

2.2.3. Situation in the market of paints and varnishes for building purposes 74

2.3. The impact of mergers and acquisitions on the market ... 86

Chapter 3 Analysis and forecasting of dynamic and structural changes in wholesale prices for building materials ... 101

3.1. Parameters and models for forecasting wholesale prices for building materials... 101

3.2. Study of price elasticity in the building materials market of the Russian Federation. 117

3.3. Analysis of the influence of seasonal and structural indicators of wholesale price dynamics on the stability of the building materials market. 133

3.3.1. Analysis of cement market stability. 145

3.3.2. Analysis of the stability of the building brick market. 151

3.3.3. Analysis of the stability of the market of paints and varnishes for building purposes. 154

Conclusion 158

References 164

Applications. 174

Introduction to work

Relevance of the topic. The building complex plays an important role in the national economy. The share of construction in the main indicators of the economy in 2004 was: in GDP (according to OKONKh) - 6.6% (in 2003 - 6.4%), in the average annual number of employees - 7.8% (in 2003 - 7.7%), in fixed assets - 1.3% (in 2003 - 2%). The building materials market and its investments are one of the determining factors in the development of the country's building complex. The cost of building materials is currently 72% of the cost of construction. At the same time, the cost of building materials and construction and installation works largely depends on the level, structure and dynamics of prices, which ultimately determines the costs in the construction industry.

The main instrument for regulating material resources in the building materials market is marketing, whose main control object is wholesale, which contributes to the optimization of product stocks at all levels and the elimination of commodity shortages, takes part in the formation of regional and sectoral commodity markets. The main lever of the wholesale trade in building materials is Wholesale price which performs a number of functions. It acts as a carrier of information and an important tool for analyzing, forecasting and planning the economic indicators of entrepreneurial activity, both manufacturing enterprises and the intermediary link in trade. Accordingly, pricing is an important element of the marketing mix in construction.

It should be noted that the building materials industry is one of the most fuel- and energy-intensive, as well as cargo-intensive industries. Currently, the tariff and price pressure of monopoly enterprises (increase in the price of gas, fuel, gasoline, electricity and growth in transportation tariffs) has a significant impact on the building materials market. The volume of transportation of products and raw materials by different modes of transport is 25% of the national cargo transportation, the share of fuel and energy in the cost structure for the production and sale of products in the industry as a whole is more than 16%, and in the cement industry it reaches 41%. In this regard, the reduction of production and distribution costs can be considered as one of the primary tasks of stabilizing the building materials market. This problem can be solved with the help of effective marketing pricing tools.

Thus, in the building materials market, the main industry-specific risks for manufacturers may lie with a possible change in prices for building materials, as well as with a possible change in prices for raw materials and services used in production. In this regard, in the field of production and marketing of building materials, it is necessary to analyze and forecast the level, dynamics and structure of wholesale wholesale prices of manufacturers for building materials.

All this led to the choice of the research topic and gives reason to consider it relevant both in scientific and practical aspects.

The purpose of the dissertation is the development of proposals that provide the most effective methods of marketing analysis and forecasting of wholesale prices for building materials.

In accordance with the goal, the following theoretical and applied tasks were formulated and solved within the framework of the study:

an analysis of the conjuncture of the building materials market was carried out, while an assessment of the degree of its monopolization was obtained (on the example of individual product lines);

the main factors influencing the formation of wholesale prices for building materials were identified;

an assessment of the degree of influence of structural components on the final wholesale prices of manufacturers of building materials was obtained;

trend, regression and cluster models have been built, allowing them to be used to influence the dynamics and seasonality of wholesale prices for various types of building materials;

forecasting of wholesale prices for some building materials.

Object of study is the building materials market of the Russian Federation.

Subject of research wholesale prices of enterprises-manufacturers of building materials act.

Theoretical and methodological basis of the study are the main provisions of economic theory, the works of leading domestic and foreign scientists on marketing, pricing and statistics: Andronova I.V., Bakanova M.I., Basovsky L.E., Bashina O.E., Belyaevsky I.K., Valuev S.A., Golubkova E.P., Danchenok L.A., Dubrovoy T.A., Ilyenkova S.D., Kaltakhchyan N.M., Kendelsky M., Kiseleva I.A., Klebanova K.V. , Kovaleva V.V., Kosterina T.M., Kuznetsova V.I., Kotler F., Kotlyar E., Lapygina Yu.N., Livshits V.N., Maksimova V.F., Orekhova S.A. , Polyakova V.V., Sadovnikova N.A., Samuelson P., Skamai L.G., Utkina E.A., Heine P., Tsatsoulina A.N., Yurieva T.V. and etc.

When solving the tasks set, forecasting methods, the index method, structural and cluster analysis were used, the statistical information analysis system SPSS, the Statistica package, and the spreadsheet MS Excel were used.

Research information base compiled the "Basic Provisions (Concept) of Pricing and Estimated Rationing in Construction in the Conditions of the Development of Market Relations" of the Gosstroy of Russia; RF GD dated August 5, 1992 No. 552 “Regulations on the composition of costs for the production and sale of products (works, services) included in the cost of products (works, services), and on the procedure for the formation of financial results taken into account when taxing profits”; data from the Federal State Statistics Service; publications of general economic and specialized mass media; Internet materials; reports of companies-manufacturers of building materials; surveys of the market of building materials "RosBusinessConsulting", "INEK" and GC "Region"; as well as the results of surveys conducted by the author for the Marketing Union organization.

Scientific novelty work is to develop methodological support for marketing in the market of building materials in the field of analysis of the structure, ratios and dynamics of wholesale prices. In the dissertation work, the following provisions are formulated and substantiated, which have elements of scientific novelty and are submitted for defense:

the analysis of the structure and procedure for the formation of the wholesale price for building materials in marketing pricing was carried out, on the basis of which:

the most significant cost elements for the final price of products are identified and ways to reduce them are proposed;

The following factors of the conjuncture of the internal and external environment of enterprises in the building materials market of the Russian Federation, which have a negative impact on marketing activities, have been identified:

the range of building materials often does not meet the needs of construction; insufficient pace of production development; significant depreciation of fixed assets and reduction in production capacity; high level of competition; tariff pressure of monopolistic enterprises (fuel, energy resources, railway transport); disproportions in the placement of production capacities;

substantiated and proved the need to improve the pricing policy in the marketing activities of enterprises in the building materials market as a way to solve these problems in modern conditions of independence of market entities;

the following areas of marketing of building materials have been developed, providing the possibility of effective pricing management in the construction industry:

substantiates the role of analytical studies of the internal and external environment of building materials marketing;

the calculation of the need for building materials was carried out in accordance with the current structure of housing construction in the country;

the role of each region and consumer group in the sale of products was assessed, the share of each type of product in the total volume of products sold was determined, which made it possible to substantiate individual cost elements for the production of building materials;

an analysis of the interchangeability of various types of building materials was carried out, which made it possible to propose more efficient ways to use them;

for the first time in marketing, a study of price elasticity in the building materials market was conducted, which made it possible to propose effective methods of cost management:

methods for optimizing costs are proposed, including in the regional aspect;

estimates of intra- and inter-group elasticity of prices for various types of building materials necessary to ensure the effectiveness of marketing management were obtained;

methods for using mathematical and statistical analysis for the purposes of marketing pricing management in the construction industry have been developed:

an adapted methodology for forecasting wholesale prices of building materials has been developed, the most effective methods of forecasting by the criterion of forecast accuracy have been identified; the corresponding forecasts of the level of wholesale prices were built;

the methodology for analyzing seasonal and structural indicators of the dynamics of wholesale prices for building materials has been improved, the relationship between indicators of seasonality of production and prices with price elasticity in the building materials market has been assessed.

The noted results correspond to paragraphs. 3.7. "Technologies for conducting marketing research on markets for goods and services", 3.12. "Factors of consumer behavior and their use in the formation of management decisions", 3.13. "Marketing aspects of product/project and assortment management", 3.18. “Development of distribution and dealer networks for the sale of products; marketing management of wholesale and retail operations” of the passport of the specialty 08.00.05 “Economics and management of the national economy (marketing)”.

Theoretical significance and practical value of the work. The results of the study can be qualified as a contribution to the scientific theory of market research and pricing, which is of great practical importance for the effectiveness of the marketing activities of enterprises in the building materials market.

The developed recommendations and proposals can be used by production, marketing and trade enterprises of the building materials market in the preparation and conduct of marketing research, as well as in order to improve product and pricing policies, establish optimal market prices for products and services.

The main provisions of the work can be used in the educational process of universities when teaching disciplines: "Marketing", "Marketing pricing and price analysis", "Statistics", "Logistics", etc.

Approbation and implementation of the results of the work. The main results of the work were reported and approved: at a meeting of CJSC Marketing Soyuz, at which they were adopted as recommendations in making management decisions, Moscow, 2004; at a joint meeting of the Department of Marketing and the Department of Strategic Management and Human Resource Development MESI, Moscow, 2005

Publications. The main provisions of the dissertation are reflected in 6 scientific articles of the author with a total volume of 1.5 pp.

Work structure conditioned by the objectives of the study, reflects its logic and consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, a list of references and applications, contains 38 tables, 37 figures and 4 applications.

Information base for the analysis of wholesale prices for building materials

The observation of individual current prices is the starting point for any generalizations and characterizations about the level of market prices. On the basis of individual prices, average prices are calculated by types and groups of goods. In pricing, the calculation (forecast) of average prices often precedes the determination of individual market prices.

The regional centers for pricing in construction (http://www.mccs.ru/) functioning for the purpose of implementing the pricing policy and providing information to participants in the construction complex publish data on a commercial basis on a quarterly basis on the level of wholesale prices for materials, products and structures used in the region for construction, on the cost of operating construction machines, transport and other services; as well as prompt tracking and publication of changes in current prices with the development of appropriate indices (including forecast prices). Since all the information necessary to perform these tasks is in the construction and installation organizations, the RCSCs were created as self-supporting organizations with the participation of construction companies (joint-stock companies, corporations, territorial construction organizations, etc.). The activities of the RCCS are carried out on a contractual basis at the expense of contractors, customers and other organizations.

The functions of national and regional information support are performed by the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (http://www.gks.ru). The Federal State Statistics Service (formerly Goskomstat) publishes in its publications once a month regional average producer prices and consumer prices for commodity groups of building materials, and also twice a year presents the dynamics of domestic wholesale prices in the form of price indices. A significant role in providing information to participants in the building materials market is played by independent information centers operating on a commercial basis, tracking current prices for resources and publishing price information and other calculated indicators. Unlike the RCCS and the State Statistics Committee, these information centers provide information not on the level of prices, but on specific price offers from manufacturers and wholesalers of building materials. As an information base for the analysis of wholesale prices, the price lists of manufacturing enterprises and organizations trading in wholesale are used. The greatest interest of market participants is caused by commercial publications that print price information on a weekly basis. In addition to specialized publications in the press, the Internet sites of manufacturers and dealers themselves, as well as organizations specializing in appropriate information support, can serve as a source of information.

Of the total mass of specialized commercial publications and Internet sites, only those that contain specific line information about the current prices of manufacturing enterprises or specialized trading organizations are suitable for price analysis. Most of the publications are screened out, because. they publish information expressed not in a specific digital, but in a verbal form such as: “Price from ...”, as well as emotionally expressed assessments such as: Prices are low, profitable, acceptable, etc.”, “Factory prices”, “At prices lower than the factory ones, etc.

Commercial publications that publish price information suitable for analysis can be conditionally distinguished into those that specialize in one (possibly two) product groups, and those that cover several product groups of the building materials market. In the first case, these are mainly magazines containing prices for various metal-containing products: ferrous metal and pipes, non-ferrous metal, stainless steel, hardware, pipeline fittings, cables and wires, metal structures). The most authoritative publications here are Metal Bulletin with world prices, Metal Courier with prices from the CIS countries, and Metal Market (an appendix to the Metal Supply and Sales magazine) with prices from Russian regions. Reviews of dynamic changes in prices for cable and wire products are periodically provided by the Marketing Soyuz publishing house in the industry magazine Cables and Wires. There are also industry sites on the Internet. The most authoritative site for participants in the ferrous and non-ferrous metals markets is www.metaltorg.ru, which contains free access to price statistics on the Russian and world markets, as well as regional price indices on the domestic market for a certain period. No less popular is the site www.rusmet.ru, which provides open access monitoring of price changes for some types of rolled metal products over a certain period. The Rusmet.Ru portal publishes in electronic and printed form an analytical review "Russian metal market", which presents factory and market prices with an expert and mathematical forecast for 3 months in advance. On the websites www.ruscable.ru and www.tradecable.ru for participants in the cable and wire products market, reviews of dynamic changes in prices for cables and wires are published, provided by the Marketing Soyuz publishing house.

Situation in the market of building bricks

Building bricks were in the past and remain the most preferred material in housing construction in the present. A simple reliable method of construction, low operating costs and durability of structures are quite strong arguments in favor of using bricks. According to the composition and method of production, the brick is divided into two groups - ceramic and silicate. The production of ceramic bricks prevails, which, due to its physical and mechanical properties, in particular the equilibrium hygroscopic humidity, creates a healthy, comfortable indoor climate.

Currently, brick production in Russia is at a relatively higher technological level than cement production, due to the fact that domestic companies preferred to buy production lines abroad. Improvement of technology aimed at reducing material and fuel consumption, automation of thermal and chemical processes have improved the quality of raw materials by enriching them, creating the basis for reducing the cost of bricks and increasing its branding. In this regard, the growth rates of brick producers' prices are much lower than those of the cement industry (see Table 2.4).

The main direction of development of the industry is the development of new types of bricks that can be in demand in the construction of housing. At the same time, the majority of Russian enterprises have an incomplete load of existing production capacities. At brick factories, as in the entire industry of Russia, the percentage of worn-out equipment is high.

The constant need for the construction of residential buildings is a constant factor in the need to increase the production of bricks. The negative attitude towards brick, cultivated for decades, has not justified itself. The need to build cottages, single-family houses, cast-in-place brick buildings is gradually increasing the demand for bricks. The main consumers of building bricks are construction organizations that carry out housing and civil, industrial and civil and other types of construction, as well as private individual developers. For construction organizations, the manufactured goods are ready-made residential, civil, industrial buildings and special structures built for a specific order of a particular customer. The demand for building bricks by consumer groups, depending on the purpose of the buildings under construction, can be distributed as follows (see Fig. 2.3)

The Russian market of building bricks is qualitatively characterized by the presence of a significant number of manufacturers and a pronounced regional character; brick factories are located everywhere, both in regional and district centers, and in towns and other settlements (as a rule, near sources of the necessary raw materials). In addition, the production of bricks is organized not only at specialized enterprises of building materials, but also at enterprises of the metallurgical, machine-building, chemical complexes, enterprises of extractive industries, enterprises for the production of fertilizers, as well as enterprises of the light and food industries. Currently, about 350 enterprises producing building bricks are registered in Russia, of which 23 enterprises have an annual capacity of over 50 million bricks per year. Building brick is predominantly a local material, in meeting the demand for which in most regions, territories, republics of Russia, bricks are used, produced in their own or, in extreme cases, in a neighboring region, and supplies from abroad practically do not participate. The exceptions are large cities, their suburban areas, when the volume of their own production is not enough to cover the demand for bricks, or the construction of large facilities according to individual projects, as well as elite construction. Thus, bricks are supplied to Moscow and the Moscow Region from many regions, both the Central District and other regions of the European part of Russia, as well as from Belarus and other foreign countries. The largest volumes of brick production are observed in the Central and Volga districts (see Fig. 2.5), which, according to the Gosstroy of the Russian Federation for 2004, account for 32% and 31% of the total Russian production, respectively. It should be noted that the volume of import supplies is 0.5-0.7% of the total Russian volume of brick production and does not have a significant impact on the domestic market.

The impact of mergers and acquisitions on the market

The problem of studying market processes of mergers and acquisitions has become extremely relevant in the last decade, since activities of this kind have become widespread. Often it threatens the stability of the economy. In the specialized literature, such activities are called in one word - mergers, which in a broad sense is understood as such a process during which one company is formed from several companies. However, legal science and accounting require splitting this category into mergers and acquisitions (acquisitions). This complex and ambiguous process manifested itself in the cement industry and undoubtedly affected the level and structure of prices for cement products.

As a result of the merger, several companies are merged into one. At the same time, as a rule, there is one “acquiring” company that initiates such a transaction and has a stronger economic potential. A distinctive feature of the merger of companies is that the shareholders of the “acquired” company after the merger retain their rights to shares, but already of the new, merged joint-stock company. Naturally, this process is similar to monopolization and, as a rule, to the dictatorship of the producer over the consumer. As a result, this leads to an upward trend in prices. The takeover procedure is distinguished by the fact that here the acquiring (acquiring) company buys all or most of the shares from the shareholders of the acquired (absorbed) company. Thus, the shareholders of the acquired company lose their rights to a share in the capital of the new merged company. Under the activity of mergers and acquisitions is understood not only the acquisition of all or most of any business entity, but also the alienation, sale of divisions, subsidiaries, change in the ownership structure of the company. Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are a procedure for changing ownership or changing the ownership structure of a company, being the final link in the system of measures for its restructuring.

Mergers and acquisitions activities are one of the main methods for implementing the company's development strategies, in particular the construction one. If a firm is in a good position in the market, being in an industry that promises it good development prospects, but it needs to strengthen its position in order to achieve competitive advantages in the industry, then using the mechanism of mergers and acquisitions, it can achieve its goal by merging or acquiring companies in that the same market segment;

Often a company can carry out mergers / acquisitions of firms from other market segments to reduce the risk of its activities (which is achieved, for example, through the release of heterogeneous products, products at different stages of their life cycle, through geographical diversification in the sale of products - that is, in other words, through the diversification of production), to expand the scope of its presence;

If a company reconsiders its position in the market, finds new priorities, singles out for itself the main directions of its activity, getting rid of non-core, problematic areas, and, finally, if the company simply lacks money, then it can effectively use the mechanism of mergers / acquisitions for sale or separation of separate divisions, subsidiaries.

The process of mergers and acquisitions is almost always associated with joint-stock business. The emergence of the institution of mergers and acquisitions in the new Russia began around the mid-1990s. In 2005, according to the Mergers.ru portal, the volume of mergers and acquisitions in Russia reached a record high of $58.9 billion, which is 157.2% more than in 2004. In terms of the number of transactions, 2005 (1285 transactions) exceeds the previous year by 437.7%. According to a study conducted by ICG "ConsultProm", the growth rate of mergers and acquisitions in Russia exceeds the world average growth rate by more than 3 times. However, the share of mergers and acquisitions in the country's GDP is about 2 times lower than the world average. According to some forecasts, if growth rates continue, then the world average level of mergers and acquisitions in Russia can be reached by 2010.

The existence of these processes is an integral property of the domestic market economy, as well as the processes of buying and selling. Mergers and acquisitions are the same purchase and sale processes, only the object here is control over the company's property. It is believed that mergers and acquisitions contribute to greater efficiency of the company due to the fact that the new owner considers the amount paid to be lower than the real one, and plans to get more profit than the previous owner by integrating the company into its production and financial chain and realizing various kinds of synergies. Due to the peculiarities of Russia, including the undervaluation of assets, almost all mergers and acquisitions in Russia are effective, unlike foreign practice, where more than half of the transactions do not justify themselves. For Russia, therefore, this is, first of all, a way to accumulate capital, a way to quickly increase its market share, and, most importantly, a form of investment. After a merger or acquisition, as a rule, there are investments, changes, modernization of production (development - English - development of the enterprise), even if this is a speculative transaction. Funds that are used to carry out a merger or acquisition come, among other things, from offshores (eng. offshore - special market zones), thereby contributing to the return of capital to Russia.

Study of price elasticity in the building materials market of the Russian Federation

The elasticity of the indicators of market conditions is due to the manifestation of the law of the market. In particular, the essence of the elasticity of supply and demand lies in their variability depending on the influence of various socio-economic factors, and, first of all, prices. However, for the purpose of the most complete analysis of the phenomenon of price elasticity, the price in some cases is considered not only as a factor sign, but also as an effective one. The influence of the main market indicators on prices is investigated to identify significant price-forming factors. Regardless of the point of view from which the price is considered, the measure of elasticity is a relative indicator - the coefficient of elasticity: the percentage change in the resultant attribute with a change of one percent in the factor attribute.

One of the most important pricing factors in the building materials market are the factors of production included in the so-called. "Magic Price Triangle" These include: production possibilities, costs, financial condition and economic dynamics. Determining the relationship between production factors and price allows you to set the price level that is most adequate to a particular volume of output. For example, an economy of scale strategy provides an opportunity to charge lower prices than competitors. In this regard, building materials market enterprises need to determine the nature of the relationship between production volumes and price levels.

The regional level of price statistics is an area of interest for both national and regional government. Here the specific problem of estimating the regional differentiation of prices is solved. The author carried out a regional analysis of the dependence of cement prices on production volumes. In order to obtain generalized data, in the process of analysis, the considered territorial units of the Russian Federation were combined into four clusters by price levels for the period from 1998 to 2003. (using the STATISTICA package). The availability of information on output volumes in value terms made it possible to calculate average prices by regions based on the weighted arithmetic mean formula (output indicators act as weights). When determining the average price in each cluster, data on the number of manufacturers of building materials in the respective regions were used as weights. Area groups in Table. 3.6 are arranged in ascending order of the average price.

Based on the obtained levels of average prices for groups of regions of the Russian Federation, we can conclude on the degree of competitiveness of the territorial markets of building materials: the smaller the number of manufacturers, the higher the price of products, and vice versa. The exception is cluster 1, where the number of manufacturers is 3. This can be explained by relatively high (compared to the Moscow region) production volumes. It should also be noted that the Moscow region has the highest rates of product consumption (see Table 3.21). In order of increasing average prices for building materials, the districts of the Russian Federation can be arranged in the following sequence: Southern - Ural and Siberian - North-West and Central. (See Annex 4). It is also possible to separate the Moscow region from the Central District, which is characterized by the highest prices. In order to analyze the mutual influence of prices in different districts (clusters), the author constructed a multiple regression model of the dependence of cement prices in the Moscow region on the price level in other regions. The cluster model according to the given data has the form: y=72.68-0.62 x1+0.68 x2+0.95 x3, where y is the price of cement in the Moscow region, x1 is the price in the Volgograd, Bryansk regions and Karachayevo -Cherkess Republic (Cluster 1), x2 - prices in the Kemerovo, Sverdlovsk, Ryazan regions and Krasnodar Territory (Cluster 2), x3 - prices in the Belgorod, Leningrad and Lipetsk regions (cluster 3). The constructed model is characterized by high forecast accuracy (correlation index is 0.999; F-observed = 442.93 F-critical = 3.24) and reflects the greatest direct dependence of cement prices in the Moscow Region on the price level in the North-Western District, i.e. . a cluster of areas with a relatively high price level.

The coefficient of elasticity of prices for building materials, depending on the volume of production, reflects the change in prices in dynamics or in comparison with any other unit of the population. The elasticity of prices is determined by the formula of the empirical coefficient of elasticity: where: and - the effective sign (price) of the base and reporting periods, respectively; and - factor sign (output) of the base and reporting periods, respectively.

A high degree of price response to the factors under study makes it possible to effectively use the tools for managing the building materials market. Calculations made in accordance with this formula revealed the following coefficients of elasticity of the price of cement by clusters of regions in 2003, compared with 2002: cluster 1 - 0.81, cluster 2 - 0.79, cluster 3 - 2.20 , cluster 4 - 1.05. Thus, we can conclude that clusters with the lowest average prices (Southern, Ural and Siberian districts) are characterized by infra-elasticity of prices for output, that is, here cement producers adhere to a marketing strategy of relatively stable, but high prices for cement. This can be explained by the goals of compensating for fluctuations in sales income during periods of production decline, in other words, such a strategy can be attributed to one of the types of business risk insurance. Clusters containing large regional centers are characterized by greater price elasticity for cement production. In cluster 3, which contains the Leningrad region, ultra-elasticity is observed, that is, prices react subtly to fluctuations in output. Cluster 4 (Moscow Region) is distinguished by prices close to unitary ones, that is, changes in production volumes can lead to only an insignificant commercial effect.

In this section, you can study the dynamics of prices for ready-mixed concrete over the past six months: see how prices have changed on average for all brands and types of ready-mixed concrete, as well as for a specific product name.

The price of ready-mixed concrete depends on many different factors, which can be conditionally divided into objective and subjective (or "fixed and variable").

Objective factors

concrete ingredients

Among the objective or permanent factors influencing the market prices of concrete, one can first of all name the pricing of the ingredients that make up its composition.

The main ingredients for concrete production are:

cement
sand
rubble, gravel
various special additives, such as water repellents and plasticizers.

As for the cost of cement, the price of trucking or other delivery to the place of production plays a decisive role here. The closer the cement plant is to the place of production, the lower the final price of cement upon delivery.

The price of sand or sand-gravel mixture depends on the proximity of the quarry, as it is usually delivered by road and the cost of delivery also plays a major role.

An important filler of concrete is gravel or crushed stone. They have different characteristics that affect their base price and are therefore reflected in the overall cost structure of concrete. Consider what determines the price of gravel, crushed granite, crushed limestone.

Gravel is a natural stone, quite loose with various inclusions. Its origin is varied, which affects its adhesion to other materials. The best adhesion is distinguished by mountain gravel - the most used in concrete mixtures. Gravel is also used sea, lake, river, glacial. Its adhesion is worse due to streamlining.

Crushed stone is already production by crushing granite, boulders, limestone. The price of granite crushed stone is higher due to its high consumer qualities. It does not erode over time, retains its hardness during operation. The price of limestone crushed stone is lower, since its extraction is carried out in most regions and the transport component is minimal, but also, of course, consumer properties, which are lower than those of granite crushed stone.

If we conditionally take the average prices for these materials, then crushed granite will be the most expensive, approximately 30-35% higher than limestone crushed stone. The price of crushed gravel is generally comparable to the price of crushed limestone. Further, the specific conditions for the remoteness of quarries and, as a result, transport costs are taken into account. Another component that affects the prices of crushed granite is the size of its fractions from 5 mm to 120 mm, depending on the tasks to be solved. Gravel fractions are divided into small ones up to 1.25 mm, medium - up to 5 mm, large - up to 10 mm.

All measurements of the constituent components of concrete are made in cubic meters. The dynamics of prices for ready-mixed concrete and other types of concrete is also tracked in cubes.

Utility bills

The price of water and electricity directly depend on the tariffs set in each particular region and objectively affect the annual increase in the cost of ready-mixed concrete, depending on the level of increase in the coefficients for utilities.

Thus, the cost of ready-mixed concrete depends on the increase or decrease in prices for the constituent ingredients, as well as the dynamics of the cost of utilities and an important fuel for transportation. The transport component in the production of concrete also plays an important role.

Final characteristics of ready-mixed concrete

In addition to the basic components, the cost of ready-mixed concrete is affected by its final consumer properties:

strength, which is stipulated by GOSTs and technical specifications. We are talking about classes and grades of concrete strength;
the mobility of concrete, which affects the convenience of its laying. Parameters such as draft of the cone or option - cast concrete;
terms of solidification and hardening of concrete;
coefficient of water resistance of concrete grades;
frost resistance coefficient.

Seasonality is an important factor in determining the price of concrete. Depending on the climatic characteristics of the region of production, it can be attributed to both types of factors (both objective and subjective) of influence on the final cost of the product. But on average, based on the dynamics of prices for ready-mixed concrete in the central regions of Russia over several years, January-April is a period of decline in production and lower prices, and growth begins in May, which is usually fixed at a certain level in summer and persists until the end of the year.